ANALYSIS · Succession

CEO turnover data: what the trackers say about hiring a chief executive now

Read together, the search firms' commentary and the latest pay and confidence reports suggest, in our reading, a tighter, pricier market for seasoned CEOs, and an owner hiring one should set the terms before the search starts.

Rendal Post Analysis Desk · Published October 22, 2026

An owner who looks up CEO turnover data wants a practical answer: how long will the next chief executive last, and what will it take to land a good one? The public material from the large search firms and The Conference Board does not reduce that to a single tenure figure, and we will not pretend it does. Read together, though, its signals point one way. The top job is being described as harder and, in some sectors, less attractive. Large-company pay is being pushed up by equity. Executive confidence is slipping. In our reading, that combination means a mid-sized company hiring a CEO should expect fewer seasoned candidates, higher price expectations, and a negotiation that turns on contract terms as much as on salary.

Where the numbers live

In our reading, the most direct tracker among our sources is the Global CEO Turnover Index that Russell Reynolds Associates publishes with its other data and indices. The firm also runs a companion index for chief operating officers that it updates each quarter. That index reports departures and appointments as a share of listed companies around the world, and it splits the trends by gender, by tenure and by whether the new executive was promoted from within or recruited from outside.

On the governance side, Spencer Stuart's U.S. Board Index is now in its 41st year and tracks how S&P 500 boards are made up, how they govern and what their directors are paid. The Conference Board, for its part, released a publication on CEO and executive compensation practices dated September 23, 2026, along with a run of material on pay and confidence that we return to below.

One caveat belongs up front. The pages we reviewed name these trackers and describe what they cover, but they do not give the latest headline readings, so this piece does not cite an average tenure, a share of forced exits or a count of interim appointments. That is a real gap, and an owner should check any article quoting those figures against the original index. What Russell Reynolds' COO index does reveal is which variables the firm thinks worth measuring: departures against appointments, tenure, gender, and internal against external hires. An owner can measure the same variables in a company of any size, starting with its own leadership team.

A harder top job

The qualitative signals are more pointed than the trackers. Russell Reynolds argues that healthcare CEO succession is under strain, in a piece contending that the chief executive role in MedTech and life sciences is losing its appeal, and says boards "must redesign the role" if they want to draw in and develop the next generation of leaders.

The same firm reports that step-up hires at nonprofits fell sharply in 2025. We read that as fewer organizations handing bigger jobs to emerging leaders, and the firm urges CEOs to keep making those bets while managing the risk that comes with the transition.

Spencer Stuart treats tenure itself as a series of stages, each of which, the firm says, requires pivotal shifts in how a chief executive thinks and behaves as the relationship with the board changes. It also expects executive teams to lead through greater scale, complexity and strategic interdependence in the years ahead.

The mood data points the same way. The Conference Board reported on October 15, 2026 that CEO confidence declined in Q4 2026, and earlier that month it published an analysis headlined on consumer confidence hitting a 12-year low.

In our reading, these signals bear on supply. When the top job in a sector is described as losing appeal and the people holding such jobs report weaker confidence, an experienced executive weighing a move has more reasons to stay put, or to ask for protection before leaving. The sources do not measure that hesitation directly. It is an inference, and an owner should test it in the first conversations with a recruiter by asking how many qualified candidates actually agreed to talk.

What it does to price

The pay signals come from large companies, which, in our reading, is where many of a mid-sized company's strongest outside candidates currently work. The Conference Board produced a video titled "The $17.5 Million Question" on what is driving CEO pay, and a September 24, 2026 release from the group reported that equity awards drive growth in S&P 500 CEO compensation. Separately, it has discussed how salary budgets are flat even as jobs and skills shift.

Put those together and, in our reading, base salary is not where the hard bargaining with a seasoned candidate will take place. An executive whose large-company pay leans on equity will ask how a private or closely held business replaces that value, and an owner who has not worked that out before the first offer will be improvising at the table. The data leaves open how large the gap is for any particular candidate. It does suggest the conversation will center on long-term incentives rather than on the monthly paycheck.

The roles under the CEO are moving too. Spencer Stuart says AI is expanding the CFO remit into strategic investment, governance and organizational change, and a new survey by the firm examines how AI is impacting talent and teams among functional leaders. That suggests the chief executive a mid-sized owner hires will be asked to lead a team whose own jobs are being redrawn, which in our reading is one more reason an experienced candidate may price the role higher.

Insiders, outsiders and interims

The question of promoting from within or hiring from outside is built into the Russell Reynolds COO index, which separates internal and external hires in its trend analysis. In our reading, the supply and price signals above shift the economics toward developing an insider, because an internal candidate does not arrive with large-company equity that has to be replaced. The nonprofit step-up decline is a caution, though. Russell Reynolds treats promoting emerging leaders as a bet whose transition risk has to be managed, not wished away.

Spencer Stuart makes a parallel point about boards, warning that changes of independent board leader are too often left to chance.

In our reading, its advice to private equity owners comes closest, among our sources, to the situation of a mid-sized company. With deals growing larger, holding periods stretching and exit routes harder to predict, Spencer Stuart argues that firms which prepare for succession in advance can limit disruption, keep momentum and protect exit value. In our reading, an owner-run business faces the same logic without the fund structure, and a CEO change that arrives unplanned is a change negotiated from weakness.

None of the material we reviewed measures interim CEOs, so we offer no figure on them. The desk's reading is that an interim appointment is the visible cost of having no plan, and that preparing a successor early is the cheapest way to avoid paying that cost.

What to do with this

Start by building your own turnover data. For your top team, track what the Russell Reynolds index tracks: who left, who arrived, how long each person stayed and whether they came from inside. Then use the public indexes to check what recruiters tell you, reading the original source rather than a secondhand summary.

Before you open a search, decide what you will offer in place of public-company equity. The Conference Board's finding that equity awards drive growth in S&P 500 CEO pay suggests that this is where a seasoned outside candidate will push hardest. Settle the shape of a long-term incentive, how it vests and what happens to it if the company is sold, so that your first offer is a position and not a draft.

Write the board relationship into the deal. Spencer Stuart's view that each stage of tenure requires pivotal shifts argues for agreeing at the outset how the CEO will be reviewed, by whom and how often. Pair that with a clear performance standard: Russell Reynolds Associates says leaders must use "clarity, candor, and consequences" to address underperformance. In our reading, severance and exit terms agreed at hiring cost less than terms hammered out in the middle of a dispute.

Finally, name a path to succession on the day the new CEO starts. The advice to private equity firms to prepare for succession in advance applies just as well, in our reading, to a family owner or a founder. The sources, as we read them, agree on one thing: the top job is getting harder to fill well. That suggests the owner who already has a bench, a pay structure and a contract in hand will be negotiating from strength when the search begins.